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Day Of Defeat: CAL-Invite Predictions: Week 3 Anzio

By: Brendan O'Conor - Published August 23, 2006 at 10:49 AM EDT - Writer Archive
Todo and odm predict what will be the last week of CAL-I as we know it before CEVO comes around.
cal invite predictions: week three
 
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Pandemic was able to bounce back from a week 1 embarrassment at the hands of JETTY, but as it turned out, it looks like it was more JETTY being good than Pandemic being bad. That's good news. They were able to beat eMg last week, but it took an eMg cap to wake the team up in the first place. There's no doubt that clone rizzo is not the sniper that moneyb was. Don't get me wrong; he isn't bad at all. But he can't dominate a route like his predecessor could. As for the rest of the team, Batman didn't make an appearance in last week's match, if memory serves. This could be indicative of his inactivity or it could just mean that he had something to do that night. It's probably not anything to care about, but the last time I mentioned this ProFiction went inactive days later. Regardless, SexualMayo is a very capable rifle that can fill in his spot well for Pandemic, and if Pandemic plans to have people in and out of matches this year, they know that they have some people to step in.

Now, MugNMouse is great, but their teamwork is nothing special. They were able to dominate JETTY in the second half of their match last week, and would have won if johngale hadn't pulled out three frags in as many bullets. But they still lost. They simply are not the team that they were last season, which sucks because their individual talent is through the roof. Last week they worked somewhat well together but in the end they weren't able to get anyone anywhere close to JETTY's first, which they needed to cap in order to win the match. Pie played a huge role in clearing out the middle of the map while vasily made some amazing shots to hold JETTY's 4th for much of the half. And, as I've pointed out before, what's worse is that they don't seem to care about fixing it. It doesn't appear to be a good situation. Their recent addition of oPlaiD will add significantly to their literacy test results as well as their scrim frag totals.

This match will go to MugNMouse. They're more or less the antithesis of Pandemic: some of the best skill in the game, subpar teamwork. Anzio is a map in which two or three frags from the street, for example, could easily lock down one particular half of the map and allow even the least cohesive of teams to cap the doubles. At the same time, the more double flags there are, the more a team will need to work together to cap the entire map. That's a valid point, it just won't matter too much in the long run. Now, there are a few comparisons to make. The first is that Pandemic beat MNM on donner last year for the upset, proving that this team is capable. The second is that MNM was able to keep it much closer with JETTY than was Pandemic, and you could even argue that JETTY had a stronger six on railroad. Look for MNM's frags to tell the story.
Todo's Prediction: MNM > Pandemic by 75
MNM lost a heartbreaker to JETTY last week on railroad, and they are still licking their wounds going into this match. The great Pandemic weapon switch may not have caused as much adjustment trouble as I first thought, as they didn’t seem to have much trouble beating eMg. The presence of rogueverve back in the lineup has definitely brought life back into Pandemic, but I don’t know if he will be enough to overcome MNM on anzio. After playing side-by-side with vasily on this map at WSVG, I’ve experienced first-hand how ridiculous he is on this map. No wall will go unscathed, and the beach spawn could be in grave danger for Pandemic. I don’t know if Pandemic has changed their strat, but the last time I played them they were sending rifles plaza and unters bridge, so that could get interesting fast. Hopefully they have come to their senses, as Money-B could provide a counter-balance to vasily’s dominance. As far as heavies go, MNM has the best duo in the game. MissioN and pie have developed great teamwork during their short time of playing together, and Shifty is going to have to be on his A-game to slow these two down. clonerizzo could keep this one close with intial pickoffs and timely kills, but in the end I think MNM bounces back and takes the win.
Odm's Prediction: MNM > Pandemic 30+
 
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I continue to bad for WickedPete. I really do. While he's heading CEVO, people are leaving and going inactive on his team every single week. Most guys would have quit by now. But Pete keeps going, and he keeps trying to find replacements. And on top of that, he continues to have the time to make it work with whichever six show up for his team each week. It's all very admirable, just not good for eMg. Now, new players aren't exactly kisses of death, but in most cases they aren't primary sources of energy either. Last week they were able to get off to a great start and capped out early in the match, but from there on out it was all Pandemic. eMg will need to come out with an amazing performance this week, because otherwise they won't go anywhere.

Skull Gaming enters this match with a misleading 1-1 record. I say misleading because their one loss came in an overtime decision against compLexity on what has historically been one of coL's best maps. To be honest, I doubt anyone is mislead by the record, though. We all know the talent that can be found under the Skull name and we know what this team brings to the table. And this should worry eMg. To be honest, there isn't much to comment on with Skull. They've lived up to expectations thus far, though some may argue that they would have beaten coL with more time, and they'll most likely continue to do so.

As it stands, this match looks to be a blowout. Anzio isn't a map that a lesser team could win by sitting in a house and waiting, so it will take a very complete effort by eMg to get something going. I don't know as of now who they picked up to replace Heineken but unless he's the best heavy in the world, ProstaR and scat will be dominating alongside NetherHell in the plaza. Now, this was the map on which mexicant took his famous 19-61 hit, but that match strengthened him, if anything. Skull Gaming will enter the match with no visible holes in their approach, while eMg will be on their heals in terms of skill and preparation. Look for this to be one-sided match.
Todo's Prediction: Skull > eMg by 150+
Maybe I gave eMg too much credit, but I was shocked when I saw their railroad score last week. They still have a ton of kinks to iron out, and playing skull on anzio won’t be an easy task. skull didn’t have much trouble handling irawr last week, and they should continue their rebound against eMg. pho and chuck are capable rifles on the bridge side for eMg, but mexicant and beas could hold them in check with support from sprynades. Netherhell likes to snipe plaza, so I expect WickedPete to be red in the face by the end of the first half of this one. If warchyld has a big match, he could tip the scales to eMg’s favor, but with Prostar able to go on huge streaks at any time, it will be hard for eMg to contain him. Russian is a highly underrated sniper, but I don’t know how comfortable he is sniping plaza, especially with Netherhell always finding the perfect position to be in for the kill.
Odm's Prediction: skull > eMg 50+
 
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n2p has certainly had a much better start to the season than most envisioned and it most likely played a role in their move-up to CEVO-P. From the very beginning, their move from CAL-M was controversial and many were arguing that they didn't deserve to be in Invite. Much has changed. In both of their matches thus far they've found ways to blow out their opponents, regardless of how they did it. Not once did I expect them to do so. So this week I won't be hesitant to give them more credit. The return of KTz strengthened their lacking rifle team to give them an effective bridge force entering this match. Aside from that, the team seems to be the same as its always been, except that they've improved under everyone's radar. There won't be any blowouts by n2p in this match, but I don't think they'll be blown out either.

JMC is yet another top team competing in CAL-I for the time being which doesn't seem to have any holes to patch heading into this match. As people have been saying, this appears to be a strong map for JMC, as they handled Phrenetik fairly well at their most recent match on the map. While their starting six hasn't changed, and is as strong as ever, they were able to pick up stevie to presumably back up. Aside from that, much like Skull, there isn't much else to comment on. I wouldn't be surprised if this is their last match in CAL, so n2p may catch a break if JMC spends more of their time on Avalanche than Anzio.

On the whole, I expect to see two things: first, JMC will be in control of the match; second, n2p will not prove to be an easy opponent. There may be some back-and-forth action on the bridge, but I see JMC having the doubles more often than not. Capping won't be as easy, though. kroD and n2p are intelligent and they should be able to halt a couple of JMC rushes. It will be interesting to see how n2p's plaza team matches up against jdub & co., but the church may be their key to victory. If they can't get into the church early and break a few caps, or at least make JMC that much more cautious, then the plaza won't be in their possession for much time at all. Depending on where eXt goes, he'll have to do a good job of holding whatever he can. In the end JMC will be too much for n2p, but expect n2p to continue impressing people early on this season.
Todo's Prediction: JMC > n2p by 75
This week dice (JMC) rejoins the CAL ranks to take on n2p in what I feel is one of JMC’s strongest maps. n2p didn’t have much trouble taking care of BnG last week, but with Talon suspended they may have issues finding a 6^th for the match this week. Regardless of their starting lineup, they don’t have much of a shot in this match. JMC handled PK on anzio at WSVG, and I expect much of the same this week against n2p. Roy won’t have any problems sniping against eXt, and n2p’s heavies won’t be able to play uber slow if they want to have a shot at taking this one. maingoes and dyelife should have fun taking care of n2p’s rifles, and jdub will give them hell pushing from plaza.
Odm's Prediction: JMC > n2p 100+
 
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JETTY, now embraced as the best pug ever, is enjoying a 2-0 record this season that includes knocking off top teams Pandemic and MNM. The title continues. Without practicing, they bring together six players each week who know how to play the game and how to work alongside the other five. It's quite impressive. Knowing how they operate now, I won't say a SINGLE WORD about who they'll use or where they'll go. Just expect them to be dominant and to put up a good fight against coL. It will come down to who they play, but whoever it is, chances are that they'll be very useful in some capacity.

compLexity is compLexity. It's a very profound statement of truth. By now, everyone knows what to expect from them and everyone knows exactly what they'll get. Interestingly enough, the rare occasion arose and I just scrimmed them, so I can give you a little more insight into what they'll do this week. First and foremost, dorito is the most amazing Anzio rifle I've ever seen. Probably the most amazing rifle I've ever seen, but for now we'll specify Anzio. As always, they have amazing teamwork to complement their insane ability to frag. While dorito dominates bridge and ninjuh holds plaza, expect chaos to run back and forth between cap zone depending on where they need help. He seems to be on a constant swivel throughout the map, trying to ultimately bring the two routes together.

It's hard to predict JETTY's matches because they should show up with any variation of a team, and with players like scorch and cableguy available, it's safe to say that there's a visible skill gap amongst the rostered JETTY players. The one thing that I can safely predict is that compLexity will win. JETTY may have their fair share of skilled players, but compLexity matches them gun for gun in terms of talent, and then throws in some teamwork to boot. While JETTY works well together naturally, compLexity's coordination is more than a natural effort. I expect this one to be somewhat close. Thus far we haven't seen JETTY stand down, even when tested by teams like MNM, so I don't see them starting now against coL. Look for compLexity to have a safe handle on bridge with dorito and cypher, but it may be up to kellen or some rotation to get something going on the plaza. It looks like this match will be fairly back and forth depending on when JETTY can manage good positioning, but in the end coL will come out on top.
Todo's Prediction: coL > JETTY by 30
In this consensus match of the week, compLexity continues to get tested early in the season; this week’s opponent: JETTY. Last week, JETTY surprised a few people by squeaking out a nine point win against MNM on railroad 2. coL had no problems with evenflow, and reminded everyone why they are the top team in the game with the big win. Former PK teammates cableguy and ninjuh will face each other for the first time this season, and they are always fun to watch on any map. kellen and dorito are still the best rifle team in the game, and should be able to handle bridge for most of the match with support from cypher behind the scope. JETTY could get a boost with smart play from surge and john, but coL is just too strong on anzio to let a win slip through their fingers.
Odm's Prediction: coL > JETTY 20+
 
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It's not exactly nice to say but this match will feature two teams that are not living up to expectations at all this season. Evenflow was moved up fairly quickly in the preseason based on their roster alone, but thus far they've only managed to drop a match against lower tier BnG and to get demolished by compLexity. There's no doubt that they're skilled, but I don't know how many people are confident in the team as a whole. Whether it's that they can't establish teamwork or that they simply haven't tried, I don't know. Whatever it is, they're not a team that should be losing to BnG. This is their week of potential redemption in which the two past matches can be flushed away, at least temporarily, with a win against a team that is in the very same boat.

Revolution Deathsquad, formerly irawrgamers with a few changes, has emerged from the irawr shell with a new roster and a new approach. They recently lost norecoil and then, this past week, Gary Bavarski, so it is on that note that they've rebuilt and renamed. The season has definitely not been going well for them thus far, unfortunately. The first week they were surprised with a blowout loss at the hands of n2p, and then in the second they suffered a very similar result against the very talented Skull Gaming. This will be the week for them to show that they're either writing this season off or they're going to salvage it. With a name like Revolution Deathsquad and their recent placement in CEVO-A rather than CEVO-P, my personal guess is that they won't be taking it too seriously. But I'm nothing if not wrong 95% of the time, so there you have it.

I've had too much faith in evenflow in the past couple of weeks but I still feel like they're a far more skilled team than they've shown, and I think they have the edge over irawr as well. That being said, this could go either way based on preparation. If neither team prepares, I think evenflow will take it. If irawr prepares, they could definitely overcome this skill barrier that I'm more likely than not imagining in my head. It's worth noting that each team has something to look forward to with CEVO. Evenflow has been honored with a placement in CEVO-P, while irawr now has a good chance at some money with their placement in CEVO-A. Now that I think about it, this match could definitely play a role in how they ultimately place in CEVO. Stockson has indicated that these divisions are by no means definite, so this match could become very important. Bottom line: I don't see Revolution Deathsquad trying too much, so I'm siding with evenflow.
Todo's Prediction: evenflow > reVo by 50

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