Todo and odm predict CAL-Invite's first week of matches on dod_donner.
Cal invite predictions: week one
vs.
At the end of a major conflict or amidst the craze of multigaming sponsorships, you can always find BnG sitting in the back, quietly remaining one of the game's most consistent and skilled teams season after season without making so much as a peep. It's easy to forget about the team when JMC and MNM are making headlines with their new sponsorships, but it appears that they're comfortable in the shadows, and now they begin yet another season in the upper echelon of Day of Defeat. In the offseason they made a couple of changes, including picking up Hvk, formerly of 3h, retaining Stevie, InSaNeZ, and Que?, while losing warchyld to eMg. To be honest, unless each of their players has discovered a level of skill that they had previously never utilized, or the team works surprisingly well together, this season does not look too promising. Perhaps their only aim is to enjoy playing the game at a high level against the best competition, and to gradually get better in the process. Or, perhaps, they have aspirations to reach higher and just haven't been able to achieve them. Whatever the motivation or the situation, I don't foresee BnG making much of a splash this season. They'll be great competition for any team and they won't fall down, but at the same time I don't see them inspiring fear in the eyes of many teams.
Evenflow is a team that was created in the offseason from a variety of different sources. Dane, bert, knockout, and sonik are coming over from the now dead Revamped team which placed well at the ISC '06, while Elusive and Joob are joining the team from somewhat inactive periods. It's unclear which six will be used for evenflow, or even whether they plan to use a consistent six each week, but one certainty is that there are far more than six capable, skilled players on this roster, and they should do well this season whether they want to try or not. Each player on this team has achieved considerable success, whether their resume is extensive and full in cases like Elusive's or Dane's, or whether they boast a list of achievements that is truly impressive for how very little they've been playing the game, as is the case for sonik and luknorth. The deciding factor for this team will be their effort. If they decide to play to win, they will, and they could even upset top teams like rSports or JMC this season. If they want to mess around, look for them to finish in the middle of the pack, a testiment to their natural skill.
Whether they try or not, this is one of the matches that evenflow should be able to take home. In the past each of their players has been apart of many successful teams, which not only means that they're skilled but that they're skilled in a way that helps. It's happened entirely too often that a very talented team wasn't able to pull together like they should have, but I don't see evenflow fitting into that category. I'm unsure of what guns they'll be using, but if their past experience is any indicator, look for Haps and sonik to heavy while dane, ko, and bert rifle mid. I don't know who evenflow plans to use on the sniper, but I believe that one of the edges that BnG may have will be with their sniper. Que? has been using the gun for as long as I can remember and he's become very good with the gun. On a map like donner where intelligence and the ability to hold at crucial times is key, Que?'s experience will become a very important advantage for BnG.
I expect evenflow to come out on top in a decisive win in their first match together as a team.
Todo's Prediction: evenflow > BnG by 75
Here we have a dwindling BnG team up against a new [dd] pug of solid players. Since CPL, BnG hasn’t exactly been dedicated to the game, with Que? and stevie testing the free agent waters during pre-season. With the absence of body and slip, the team just isn’t the same. On the other side, evenflow is bringing together the forces of GoMi and revamped (with some additional talent thrown in) to make what could be a sleeper team in invite this season. BnG had trouble fielding 6 last week, and things don’t look much brighter for the boys now. Fortunately for them, when they do manage to find 6 players they throw a lot of talent at you. Que? is your typical lock-down sniper and should have the edge in the mid battle for most of the match. Insane always puts up solid numbers with a rifle, and stevie can do a ton of damage no matter what gun he is put on. But the silver lining stops there. evenflow sports a ton of talent, and many of the players have played together on former teams so teamwork shouldn’t be much of an issue. Any player on this team can seemingly pick up any gun and do well, and this does not bode well for BnG. If the right six players show up Wednesday, we will be treated with quite a nice match, but evenflow still takes the win.
odm's Prediction: evenflow > BnG 30-
vs.
This match will pit two teams against each other who have thus far been successful, but not too successful. Beginning with nothing 2 prove, they made a few changes in the offseason and unfortunately lost some of their better players. Wallu and stin are gone from their CPL team, but they were able to pick up Talon and KiLeN to replace them. I haven't seen this team be too active, and this could be one of their biggest problems. They have a lot of talent and my guess is that the last season in invite was VERY helpful for them, but with a team like this, they will reap what they sow. Talon is a very underrated heavy and, after having played alongside him at X3O, I can attest that he was probably our best player in spite of the issues with his sound. Look for him to team up with kroD once again and surprise a few heavy teams this season.
On the irawr side of things, their recent Behind the Team interview yielded a few different responses regarding their plans for the future. The team, formerly known as That's A Paddlin', has decided to stick with the irawr name, which may or may not be indicative of how much they plan to try. That's A Paddlin' isn't exactly a serious name either, but that name has thus far been accompanied by success, while irawrgamers embodied the "we don't scrim but we still win" persona. If they practice like endOfone promises, they will be a very, very good team. If they don't, they'll find themselves in the bottom of the pack this season, and that will begin with a match against n2p. In the offseason, they made a slew of changes, bringing Tiacus and Ham? from TAP to replace xprivatex. The last I checked, GaryB, norecoil, odm, and endOfone will complete the six, but with propaganda perhaps back from inactivity, we'll see what role he plays. Him and those sunglasses.
Once again, this match will come down to effort. These two teams are fairly comparable in skill, though I believe irawr might have the slight edge, but this slight edge is something that could easily be overcome by a hint of effort. In the past we've seen the lesser team win on donner due to their willingness to play very, very slowly, and that could be the way to win in a match like this. I know for a fact that talon has no problems slowing it all down, and he could be even more of an asset to his team than I already expect him to be. If I had to guess, I would contend that the initial rush of the entire match will be the single most telling aspect in deciding the win. If one of the teams can get their nades and shots right, or time their rush so that they know how or when to avoid nades, taking middle will be a quick shot to each team's confidence. These teams are experienced enough to get into CAL-I, but very rarely will a team know precisely how to get out of a rut unless they've observed and practiced. Donner is a map known for ruts - getting a good player out of the suze can be impossible - and this all re-affirms my belief in preparedness winning the match.
Todo's Prediction: irawrgamers > n2p by 50
vs.
This match is undoubtedly the match of the week and I sincerely hope that these guys can agree to play at a different time so that people can watch the match. Skull Gaming, as many know, came out with a new roster this season which 45 hopes will be its best yet. They combined skill, experience, and leadership to form one of the best teams in CAL-Invite on paper, but it has been skullgaming's repeated downside to see a very, very skilled roster not live up to expectations. This team will feature ProstaR on the heavy and NetherHell on sniper, but beyond that their team is completed by four rifles in scat, Beas, mexicant, and scrd?. My guess is that Beas will be moving to the heavy, but with this being the team's first showing, it's difficult to say. The bottom line for this team will obviously be their teamwork. skull.45 has said that he put together a team that he hopes will win, meaning that these six won't last without some effort, but where that effot will lead them has yet to be seen. They have loads of skill, and nobody can deny that, so we shall see where mexicant leads them.
As for compLexity, for the past couple of seasons they have been the total package. Since winning CAL-M a few seasons back, this team has continued to grow beyond what anyone else could have expected, with pickups like Kellen and ProFiction that made most people truly believe that this team is unbeatable. This is somewhat true, but in the past the team has shown that they're very beatable in matches with nothing on the line. If memory serves, MNM has beaten compLexity each of the past two seasons in CAL-I during the regular season, as did team risK in seasons prior. In the recent ISC '06, JMC surprised everyone by handing compLexity a loss in the double elimination tournament. Whether this team consciously decides to drop their guard during matches of lesser importance or not, the invincibility of this team has not held up in matches such as this. The team has a CPL championship, a second place finish at the CPL, and a handful of CAL-Invite championships, so it will be up to them to make this match mean something.
compLexity has shown that it's a very strong team on donner, and I expect it to come as a relief to them that they will play a skilled team like skullgaming on this map. They work very well together and know how to slow a map down to a comfortable pace, as well as how to hold the middle. Given the experience they've had on this map in important matches, I don't see them as being beatable. skullgaming recruited a vast amount of skill, but even in terms of skill alone, I don't believe they're on compLexity's level. On top of skill, skullgaming could not have possibly achieved the chemistry and coordination in the past few weeks that compLexity has perfected in the past couple of years. The skullgaming team will face their first real test very early on in the season, and if they've been actively working towards a win, they may be able to make it a close match. Look for cypher to pull out all the tricks while NetherHell does his best to keep his team from being pushed back. Chaos is known for his slow play, and it would take teamwork that skull may not have to remove him from bunker once he's in there. As for the rifles, I don't see skullgaming having a prayer. Dorito and kellen are probably the most skilled tandem in the game today, and I expect them to dominate mid.
The bottom line is that compLexity will outplay skullgaming. Each team will make its share of nice shots, but compLexity has amassed the coordination and teamwork required to overwhelm skullgaming.
Todo's Prediction: compLexity > Skull by 50
It’s no question that everyone is looking forward to watching these two projected top teams duke it out to start this season of CAL, and the only complaint that could be made is that it has to take place on donner. Fresh off their CPL championship, complexity looks to re-establish their domination right from the start. On the other hand, 3 of skull’s members had an impressive showing with Aborted at CPL taking 5^th place in the tournament, and it would be certainly hard to argue that this team is any worse. Donner was coL’s only blemish on their road to the championship, so I’m sure chaos has his team prepared to avoid a repeat of that. On the other hand, skull is still establishing their teamwork and chemistry, and donner will be a definite test to see how far they’ve come up to this point. The sniper battle in mid should be intense, with Netherhell and cypher both being at the top of their game. coL has a slight advantage in the rifle department, although scrd? has been known to throw Jesus nades that ace the opposing team when you least expect them, and mexicant can go on a streak at any given moment. ProstaR could swing the heavy advantage to skull with his raw skill, but chaos has the uncanny ability of sneaking into axis loft and killing three or more people in the back without skipping a beat. In the end, I think coL’s superior teamwork will lead them to a close victory, but I wouldn’t be surprised if skull pulls off the “upset.”
odm's Prediction: coL > skull 20-
vs.
eMazing Gaming has had nothing but a difficult time this season, as thus far they've been unable to field a solid roster for more than a week or two. Only half a month ago, the team formerly known as GIMP announced that they had joined the eMazing Gaming organization with a roster of WickedPete, Heineken, PHO, Rebirth, Russian, and Clutch. Now, with the recent announcement of Heineken's supposed retirement, only WickedPete, PHO, and Russian remain active members of the roster, and even his activity was in question. Stockson made a recruiting thread in search of potential options, but the team has since picked up Chuck Early and warchyld, which could at least allow the team to have six for the match. We'll see how this roster works together, but from what I can see it doesn't appear to be complete, as the remaining four players on the roster have, at least in the past, decided to bench or go inactive. As for their new recruits, chuck early has been known to take a toll on a team's psyche - the only downfall for an otherwise amazing player - and that's not something eMg can weather right now.
As for MugNMouse, the road to the beginning of the season has been far smoother than that of their opponent, and this match looks to be almost entirely in their favor. They will retain their starting six from last season, with their only roster shakeup being the recruitment of a seventh player, expected to happen within the next week. Last season they made it to the CAL-Invite finals, confirming the community's belief in their skill, and each of their six starters managed to attend one of the two LAN events in late June and early July. Some in the community question the difference between their "fine" play on LAN and their exceptional play online, but for the most part people have accepted that this team is very strong no matter where they play. They came home after the ISC and gave compLexity a run for their money in the Invite finals, though they ultimately lost, and they remain one of the very top teams in competitive DoD to this day.
Unfortunately for all but MugNMouse and its fans, this match appears to be as lopsided as Invite matches come. eMazing Gaming has recruited some good players in chuck and warchyld, but neither will be up to par with MNM. Right now the new MNM team seems to be the total package and with some practice they could achieve what has eluded them in the past - a championship - so this first match on donner should be a stepping stone for their confidence. Last season they had some issues on donner, and Shifty Powers was able to run all over their team in Pandemic's upset over MNM. They've voiced concern regarding their abilities on the map, but once again I think this match will allow them to up their confidence in this particular area. WickedPete is the foundation of eMg and a very capable heavy, but with the likes of MissioN and pie, MNM will be pressuring the middle and second flags a LOT with their heavies. Russian will probably be eMg's strongest player; snipers are typically able to dominate the map and as snipers go, Russian is very capable. Look for MNM to find their footing, both for the season and for donner, as they produce one of the bigger margins of the week.
Todo's Prediction: MNM > eMg by 150
In this match up we have two teams going in completely opposite directions. eMg is on the verge of dying (again) now that Heineken is allegedly quitting DoD for WoW, and WickedPete is sick of trying to pick up new people. On the other hand we have the former ENE, a team that has done nothing but improve since coming to CAL-I. With a new sponsorship in hand, this team of undeniable talent is looking to go one step further this season. Donner is infamous for slow, campy play, and this could help eMg to an extent. Unfortunately for my boys, it just won’t be enough to change the outcome of the match. Russian is a solid sniper and will give bogart his share of headaches, but eMg is just outmatched in this one. This one could get ugly, especially with Ivan “I ace teams off donner initial for breakfast” Cheng and Madison “ninja caps are what I do” Kamp leading the charge. Pie will never surrender bunker, and MNM will take the victory.
odm's Prediction: MNM > eMg 50+
vs.
Having just watched these two teams battle it out at X3O for the finals match, I can only hope that it will translate into a bit of a rivalry between the two teams. It's odd enough that they will be playing each other immediately after X3O, so perhaps the recent results will stir some extra motivation. Unfortunately, it looks like only three of JETTY's X3O members will be playing in the match: johngale, stevE, and buzzbee, with scorch, seveN, and cableguy finishing out the six. This team looks to be one of the most naturally skilled teams in CAL right now, but many of its players plan to play on the team as a second focus. scorch and seveN are both members of the CEVO-P team spf3000, while cableguy has announced that he plans to cut back on his activity in DoD. As fas as I know, Steve Hisey, John Gale, and buzzbee are not on CEVO teams either, so activity and effort will be the deciding factor for JETTY as well. Similar to evenflow, but perhaps even more so, this team has enough skill in its lineup to take them very far in CAL-I, even without the effort, so look for them to have little trouble with the lower-tier teams and to give the upper-tier teams a good match.
The obvious story for Pandemic has been their decision to move around in their classes. Moneyb has sniped since uKz first broke into the CAL scene a few years ago, and for the first time he will be rifling alongside rogueverve. Batman, until recently a heavy, will be third rifling, while the previous third rifle, Clone Rizzo, will now be sniping. Long time rifle Bewton has decided to switch to the autos for now, leaving Pandemic's team completely revamped. Shifty Powers will be finishing up the six on the autos as he has in the past. While many of the players are changing guns, it has been my experience that experience and teamwork allow for any shift in assignment to go smoothly, and this shouldn't rattle them too much. In fact, it might re-invigorate a team that has had very few fresh changes in the past. Regardless, I don't expect Pandemic to lose ground as a result of this decision.
With each team's background out of the way, one thing is certain: this will not be anywhere close to the X3O finals. The two teams have a combined 5 players who will be playing in this match, but did not at X3O, and these five form a very crucial group without which many things change. On sniping, I can't be sure of Clone Rizzo's strength, but I don't have the best feeling about it. Between jg, scorch, and Steve Hisey, JETTY has a variety of skilled snipers, all of whom I would favor above Clone Rizzo. On this map, that's an important matchup to want to win. On heavies, it will be up to Shifty Powers to play at his highest level. Bewton is not the most experienced heavy and I don't expect him to do very well against opposition that includes cableguy and buzzbee, so unless Shifty can dominate, I'm giving bunker to JETTY. It will be interesting to see how Batman, rogueverve, and moneyb do in middle, but my guess is that rogueverve and moneyb will be bearing the brunt of the world. Batman is a very strong heavy but his rifle play at X3O was below his standards, while rogueverve and moneyb both excelled. seveN, scorch, and johngale could have a difficult time, but I'll give them the slight edge in this rifle contest.
All in all, JETTY appears to be on top of this one. I've seen and heard Pandemic discuss strategies to an extent that most, and certainly JETTY, do not, and this will be their saving grace. If they can strategize and play according to a gameplan rather than their skill, they'll make this match close and perhaps even win it. Never underestimate this team's ability to ninja cap.
Todo's Prediction: JETTY > Pandemic by less than 50
If we didn’t have coL v skull this week, this match would easily take MOTW honors. Both of these lineups are solid, and one can only hope this match is at a different time so we can all see both top matches this week. After CPL, Pandemic has shifted around positions, and that could prove to be an interesting change for bewton and the boys this season. On the other hand, if this were Major League Baseball we might as well call JETTY the Yankees. With off season acquisitions like scorch, cableguy, max, and seveN, this team could be completely different than the squad from last season (depending on who shows up each week), and their baseball salary could be well near $1 billion. But you have to wonder if this JETTY lineup will just show up for matches like seasons past. With 3 of the guys starting to focus on their CEVO lineup, we will soon see what their dedication to CAL will be. Getting down to business, clone rizzo has moved to sniper, and it will be interesting to see how he transitions into the role going against hisey in mid. Money-B should have no trouble moving to rifle, but JETTY should have the rifle advantage with scorch and john leading the charge. Shifty vs. cableguy on heavies should be a great battle to watch for anyone looking to learn how to play the position. With bewton on heavy now, Pandemic could have the bunker holder they have been missing since the depature of pie, but in the end I think JETTY grabs the win.
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